How Institutional Investor- Public Partnerships Can Drive GreenTech Innovation Beyond Moore’s Law

Dr. Hubert Danso, Chairman, Africa investor (Ai) Group

Every year of delayed green technology deployment costs the world an estimated $1.6 trillion in climate damages and lost opportunities—a stark reminder of the urgency to act.

As the world grapples with a mounting climate finance emergency, scaling green technologies is critical for achieving net-zero targets and mitigating climate change’s worst effects. Despite significant achievements, such as an 85% reduction in solar energy costs over the past decade, green technologies have yet to achieve the exponential advancements seen in digital technologies under Moore’s Law.

Systemic barriers like entrenched fossil fuel dominance, regulatory inertia, and integration challenges for renewable energy continue to impede progress. However, these barriers also offer an opportunity to rethink strategies for investing in, financing, deploying, and scaling green innovations.

With over $300 trillion in assets under management, institutional investors are uniquely positioned to drive transformative change. By leveraging Institutional Investor-Public Partnerships (IIPPs), they can accelerate, de-risk, and scale green technology deployment at a rate that surpasses Moore’s Law.

Five Key Levers to Accelerate Green Innovation

1. Mandate-Aligned Investment Frameworks

Institutional investors and governments must align mandates to unlock green technology’s full potential. Long-term policy stability, as exemplified by the Nairobi Declaration and the Paris Agreement, provides a predictable environment for investments. Innovative de-risking mechanisms, including private-to-private risk re-characterization programs and blended finance models such as public guarantees and first-loss structures, are crucial. These approaches, seen in the European Green Deal and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, unlock private capital for sustainable projects on a transformative scale.

2. Aggregated Investment Vehicles for Scale

Green projects often remain too fragmented for institutional investors to engage. Vehicles like the African Green Infrastructure Investment Bank (AfGIIB) aggregate smaller initiatives across renewable energy, industrial manufacturing, and critical mineral processing into institutional-grade portfolios.

This strategy minimizes transaction costs, diversifies risk, and enhances liquidity, enabling large-scale green technology deployment in regions with the greatest demand.

3. Leverage Digital Technologies for Scalability

Cutting-edge technologies such as AI, machine learning, and big data are key accelerators for green innovation. These tools optimize energy storage, facilitate predictive maintenance for renewable infrastructure, and enhance smart grid efficiency.

Platforms like GEMs3.0 deploy AI-driven asset allocation to scale green investments while managing risks effectively. By integrating digital and green technologies, IIPPs can replicate the exponential growth dynamics of Moore’s Law in the energy sector.

4. Policy Advocacy and Infrastructure Development

Regulatory hurdles and outdated infrastructure delay green technology adoption. IIPPs can play a leading role in advocating for streamlined permitting, modernized energy grids, and the construction of new transmission infrastructure.

International forums such as UNFCCC-COP, G7, G20, and BRICS are critical for establishing global standards and promoting best practices to accelerate renewable energy deployment.

5. Market Leadership Coalitions

Effective coalitions that unite institutional investors and public-sector leaders are pivotal for scaling green industrialization. Initiatives like the AfGIIB and key global events, such as South Africa’s G20 Presidency, position Africa as a prime destination for green industrial capital. Such coalitions create market signals that reinforce investment flows, policy stability, and adoption of transformative technologies.

Accelerating Green Innovation: Analytical Examples

1. Solar Energy Deployment: Compressing 30 Years into a Decade

• Timeline Comparison: Solar photovoltaic (PV) costs dropped by 85% from 2010 to 2020, surpassing Moore’s Law’s pace (~30% cost reduction per decade). Public-private collaborations like Germany’s Energiewende drove this achievement.
• Acceleration with IIPPs: Aggregated investment mechanisms like the AfGIIB could further compress timelines, achieving global solar cost parity by 2030, delivering in 7–10 years what previously took decades.

2. EV Battery Manufacturing: Halving Gigafactory Timelines

• Timeline Comparison: Lithium-ion battery costs fell by 97% between 1991 and 2023, paralleling Moore’s Law. However, gigafactory construction still averages 3–5 years per facility.
• Acceleration with IIPPs: Institutional investments in modular gigafactory designs could reduce timelines to 2 years, effectively doubling global EV battery capacity within a decade.

3. Green Hydrogen: Achieving Parity in a Single Decade

• Timeline Comparison: Green hydrogen is expected to achieve cost parity with gray hydrogen by 2035–2040.
• Acceleration with IIPPs: Investments in Green Industrial Cities, innovation hubs, and hydrogen corridors backed by AI-optimized infrastructure and IIPP frameworks could advance cost parity to 2030, shortening the timeline by up to 10 years.

The Path Forward: Exceeding Moore’s Law for Green Technologies

The systemic challenges that slow green technology deployment are significant but surmountable. Through mandate alignment, project aggregation, digital innovation, policy reform, and coalition-building, Institutional Investor-Public Partnerships can accelerate the energy transition beyond the pace of Moore’s Law.

This approach requires bold leadership, creative solutions, and unwavering dedication. The payoff is monumental: achieving a net-zero future that not only delivers risk-adjusted returns for institutional investors but also ensures a sustainable planet for generations to come.

The clock is ticking. The moment for exponential progress is now—let’s seize it.